Bilag 1. Finanseffekter

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Tabel B1a. Effekt på bnp (procent)
    Jul13 Jun14 Okt14 Okt15 Okt16 Jul17 Jul17x Okt18 Jun19 Okt20
Varekøb fVo1 0.103 0.093 0.080 0.083 0.078 0.083 0.080 0.079 0.084 0.086
Off. besk. Qo1 0.134 0.124 0.122 0.123 0.134 0.145 0.141 0.142 0.147 0.152
Off. lønninger lo 0.008 0.006 0.002 0.003 0.005 0.007 0.011 0.010 0.012 0.022
Bygge- og anlægsinvest fIbo 0.101 0.102 0.084 0.088 0.081 0.087 0.086 0.085 0.088 0.088
Øvrige investeringer fImo 0.048 0.049 0.058 0.063 0.062 0.062 0.061 0.061 0.059 0.059
Arbejdsmarkedsbidrag Sya 0.025 0.025 0.020 0.022 0.026 0.025 0.024 0.024 0.025 0.036
Indkomstskat Ssysp 0.030 0.030 0.025 0.028 0.031 0.031 0.029 0.030 0.030 0.043
Vægtafgift Syv 0.073 0.082 0.064 0.069 0.088 0.088 0.086 0.088 0.059 0.067
Selskabsskat Sycr -0.002 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.010 0.010 0.013
Kulbrinteskat Syck 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.008 0.008 0.012
Pensionsafkastskat Sywp 0.002 0.003 0.002 0.003 0.007 0.008 0.007 0.008 0.008 0.010
Off. ydelse Tyrrs 0.020 0.019 0.016 0.018 0.019 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.018 0.026
Off. ydelse, skattefri Tyrrr 0.030 0.032 0.027 0.030 0.032 0.032 0.031 0.031 0.031 0.044
Moms Spg 0.033 0.034 0.032 0.037 0.034 0.035 0.034 0.034 0.034 0.046
Energiafgift Spp_ce 0.037 0.044 0.042 0.041 0.049 0.050 0.049 0.049 0.051 0.068
Fødevareafgift Spp_cf 0.030 0.031 0.029 0.027 0.031 0.033 0.032 0.032 0.031 0.043
Benzinafgift Spp_cg 0.048 0.052 0.043 0.046 0.061 0.062 0.061 0.063 0.064 0.073
Subsidier Sppu 0.053 0.052 0.047 0.047 0.050 0.048 0.047 0.048 0.047 0.060
Ejendomsskat Spzej 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.024 0.015 0.015 0.014 0.031 0.032 0.040
Subsidier, ikke-varefordelt Spzuqr 0.055 0.054 0.045 0.040 0.039 0.042 0.043 0.053 0.054 0.015
Registreringsafgift Spr 0.061 0.067 0.065 0.068 0.062 0.065 0.065 0.075 0.065 0.077

 

Tabel B1b. Effekt på beskæftigelse (1000 personer)
    Jul13 Jun14 Okt14 Okt15 Okt16 Jul17 Jul17x Okt18 Jun19 Okt20
Varekøb fVo1 1.464 1.325 1.124 1.140 1.185 1.253 1.226 1.370 1.463 1.503
Off. besk. Qo1 4.842 4.656 4.882 4.877 5.433 5.503 5.454 5.596 5.794 5.927
Off. lønninger lo 0.094 0.194 0.195 0.218 0.257 0.116 0.178 0.177 0.239 0.350
Bygge- og anlægsinvest fIbo 1.585 1.574 1.376 1.440 1.466 1.652 1.652 1.646 1.591 1.667
Øvrige investeringer fImo 0.710 0.706 0.750 0.805 0.918 0.920 0.920 1.016 1.078 1.152
Arbejdsmarkedsbidrag Sya 0.309 0.295 0.247 0.276 0.322 0.327 0.317 0.344 0.363 0.553
Indkomstskat Ssysp 0.374 0.350 0.301 0.340 0.391 0.401 0.388 0.427 0.446 0.672
Vægtafgift Syv 0.794 0.859 0.663 0.686 0.833 0.860 0.846 0.964 0.577 0.794
Selskabsskat Syc 0.004 0.037 0.017 0.032 0.016 0.021 0.015 0.151 0.152 0.200
Kulbrinteskat Tirk -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.002 -0.004 0.001 -0.004 0.109 0.113 0.182
Pensionsafkastskat Sywp 0.032 0.034 0.028 0.035 0.089 0.098 0.087 0.113 0.114 0.161
Off. ydelse Tyrrs 0.245 0.222 0.192 0.217 0.240 0.246 0.237 0.257 0.260 0.397
Off. ydelse, skattefri Tyrrr 0.374 0.379 0.326 0.368 0.407 0.417 0.404 0.443 0.453 0.682
Moms Spg 0.404 0.392 0.367 0.416 0.379 0.427 0.459 0.497 0.468 0.682
Energiafgift Spp_ce 0.176 0.222 0.212 0.219 0.333 0.376 0.364 0.390 0.441 0.726
Fødevareafgift Spp_cf 0.259 0.278 0.262 0.239 0.327 0.335 0.325 0.386 0.379 0.598
Benzinafgift Spp_cg 0.487 0.512 0.405 0.381 0.497 0.518 0.511 0.597 0.644 0.775
Subsidier Sppu 0.727 0.636 0.575 0.557 0.644 0.680 0.662 0.731 0.744 0.964
Ejendomsskat Spzej 0.277 0.281 0.274 0.370 0.233 0.244 0.235 0.492 0.504 0.657
Subsidier, ikke-varefordelt Spzuqr 0.863 0.862 0.668 0.564 0.512 0.545 0.563 0.856 0.897 0.234
Registreringsafgift Spr 0.575 0.618 0.543 0.526 0.440 0.477 0.475 0.650 0.599 0.837

 

Tabel B1c. Effekt på timeløn (procent)

    Jul13 Jun14 Okt14 Okt15 Okt16 Jul17 Jul17x Okt18 Jun19 Okt20
Varekøb fVo1 0.020 0.018 0.014 0.012 0.012 0.012 0.012 0.014 0.014 0.013
Off. besk. Qo1 0.065 0.063 0.062 0.052 0.055 0.052 0.053 0.054 0.054 0.052
Off. lønninger lo 0.004 0.006 0.007 0.007 0.008 0.010 0.006 0.006 0.005 0.005
Bygge- og anlægsinvest fIbo 0.021 0.021 0.018 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.015
Øvrige investeringer fImo 0.011 0.011 0.009 0.008 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.012 0.012
Arbejdsmarkedsbidrag Sya 0.004 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.005
Indkomstskat Ssysp 0.005 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.006
Vægtafgift Syv 0.011 0.012 0.009 0.008 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.006 0.008
Selskabsskat Syc 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.002
Kulbrinteskat Tirk 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.002
Pensionsafkastskat Sywp 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001
Off. ydelse Tyrrs 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.004
Off. ydelse, skattefri Tyrrr 0.005 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.006
Moms Spg 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.003
Energiafgift Spp_ce 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.007
Fødevareafgift Spp_cf 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.003 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.004 0.004 0.006
Benzinafgift Spp_cg 0.007 0.007 0.005 0.004 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.006 0.006 0.006
Subsidier Sppu 0.010 0.009 0.007 0.006 0.007 0.006 0.006 0.007 0.007 0.009
Ejendomsskat Spzej 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.002 0.004 0.004 0.005
Subsidier, ikke-varefordelt Spzuqr 0.011 0.010 0.007 0.004 0.004 0.003 0.004 0.007 0.008 0.001
Registreringsafgift Spr 0.008 0.009 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.007 0.006 0.008

 

Tabel B1d. Effekt på offentlig budget (mio.kr)
    Jul13 Jun14 Okt14 Okt15 Okt16 Jul17 Jul17x Okt18 Jun19 Okt20
Varekøb fVo1 -1601 -1441 -1281 -1316 -1350 -1431 -1389 -1388 -1508 -1482
Off. besk. Qo1 -1159 -1024 -1109 -1138 -1226 -1512 -1440 -1482 -1564 -1542
Off. lønninger lo -799 -906 -939 -931 -945 -1034 -952 -1005 -1060 -1082
Bygge- og anlægsinvest fIbo -1337 -1357 -1213 -1226 -1253 -1198 -1193 -1198 -1309 -1281
Øvrige investeringer fImo -1178 -1214 -1628 -1635 -1727 -1762 -1757 -1673 -1815 -1496
Arbejdsmarkedsbidrag Sya -1618 -1610 -1690 -1674 -1706 -1715 -1724 -1713 -1802 -1685
Indkomstskat Ssysp -1653 -1655 -1773 -1758 -1795 -1818 -1825 -1831 -1965 -1798
Vægtafgift Syv -1141 -1031 -1264 -1221 -948 -885 -891 -880 -1418 -1351
Selskabsskat Syc -1926 -1905 -2046 -2109 -2211 -2262 -2263 -1886 -1992 -1936
Kulbrinteskat Tirk -2016 -2020 -1802 -1916 -1951 -2010 -2012 -1762 -1821 -1780
Pensionsafkastskat Sywp -1855 -1842 -1934 -1932 -1972 -2021 -2026 -1939 -2098 -2078
Off. ydelse Tyrrs -1082 -954 -1030 -1014 -1048 -1052 -1058 -1049 -1121 -1037
Off. ydelse, skattefri Tyrrr -1653 -1630 -1749 -1731 -1778 -1800 -1807 -1811 -1956 -1786
Moms Spg -1453 -1459 -1522 -1520 -1591 -1582 -1582 -1559 -1720 -1606
Energiafgift Spp_ce -1891 -1912 -2059 -2116 -2144 -2175 -2172 -2143 -2300 -2079
Fødevareafgift Spp_cf -2028 -2047 -2175 -2220 -2287 -2335 -2339 -2321 -2498 -2352
Benzinafgift Spp_cg -1853 -1834 -2040 -1980 -1819 -1812 -1815 -1781 -1925 -1831
Subsidier Sppu -1730 -1684 -1803 -1854 -1890 -1833 -1838 -1809 -1952 -1786
Ejendomsskat Spzej -1530 -1498 -1584 -1571 -1728 -1780 -1786 -1494 -1603 -1465
Subsidier, ikke-varefordelt Spzuqr -1320 -1324 -1278 -1422 -1497 -1459 -1511 -1296 -1369 -1638
Registreringsafgift Spr -893 -847 -786 -770 -648 -615 -612 -528 -855 -712